Models....no not THOSE kind of models...

[woodsmoke]

lol no not this:



But this FASCINATING discussion of "models" as in "scientific" or "business" or "statistical" I did NOT know that there were so many NAMES...for the different types of models...

I have done a section in the scientific method on "computer models" since just before I retired so I'm going to provide a linky for them but this is just fascinating..l.

and shows how much of a geekhead that I am.

https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/models-science/

woodsmoke

[GreyGeek]

Interesting indeed!

My "hobby" for a long time was to develop and/or analyze mathematical models of physical systems, although I don't do it much anymore. I was "triggered" ( ) by the 1972 book and BASIC computer program titled "Limits To World Growth", which I ran on my Apple ][+ in 1979. Fortunately, back then, BASIC code wasn't locked out and it was easy to analyze the math for model they used, which was based on their WORLD3 computer model. It was also easy to see how they combined variables in such a way as to give the results they wanted, based on their political and scientific assumptions and that they boldly extrapolated their model over a hundred years into the future. Over extrapolation is the bane of computer models, but is a convenient tool for politically gerrymandering the scientific landscape, just as it is done today. Basically, it claimed that growth was bad and we were going to run out of natural resources and starve to death later this century unless we adopt Socialist programs then.

Remember Nuclear Winter in 1972, and we are going to freeze to death unless we immediately adopt Socialist rules (and spread Carbon black on both poles)?

Global warming apparently came in 1922 as well, as reported by the American Consul at Bergan, Norway. Snopes agrees, although they claim it was only for the Bergan area. Strange, since the article states that sailors navigated as far north as 81' 29" without seeing ice.

I was also amused at the 97% of all scientists agree that global warming is man-made. That figure was taken from a survey by a Masters graduate student, Kindall Zimmerman, and her advisor, Peter Doran of the University of Illinois. It is based on two questions:

1. When compared with pre- 1800s levels, do you think that mean global temperatures have generally risen, fallen, or remained relatively constant?
2. Do you think human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global temperatures?

The 2nd question is of the classic "have you stopped beating your wife?" kind. It assumes as true that mean global temperatures are changing, despite the hiatus for the last 19 years.

The survey was sent to 10,257 scientists of all types. Only 3,146 replied. Of those, only 160 were self-reported as a "climate scientist", with no definition in the survey of what the title means. The "97%" value actual came from a small subset of 79 scientist who both self-reported to be "climate scientists" AND claimed that more than 50% of their recent peer-reviewed papers were on climate change. These 79 scientists affirmed that climate change is real and humans are causing it. 79 out of 3,146, or 2.5%.

When the CRU files were released by the whistle blower it included 1,072 emails that went back as far as 10 years previous to the leak. CNN interviewed Gore and asked him about the emails. He said that they didn't mean anything because they were ALL ten years old. While he was saying that I was looking at one of the emails which was dated less than 10 days before the leak. The newest was on Nov 12th, but this one from the 10th was more interesting:

From: Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
To: c.harpham@uea.ac.uk
Subject: FW: Helpdesk query 1489: Hourly data have discontinuities at day joins
Date: Tue Nov 10 16:35:20 2009


Colin,
I thought that this didn't happen.
Cheers
Phil


From: C G Kilsby <c.g.kilsby@newcastle.ac.uk>
To: "p.jones@uea.ac.uk" <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>
Date: Tue, 10 Nov 2009 15:35:37 +0000
Subject: FW: Helpdesk query 1489: Hourly data have discontinuities at day
joins
Thread-Topic: Helpdesk query 1489: Hourly data have discontinuities at day
joins
Thread-Index: AcpiFAtfZVu2N5gLTBW4NaA+k/QJowAB1zVA
Accept-Language: en-GB
X-MS-Has-Attach:
X-MS-TNEF-Correlator:
acceptlanguage: en-GB
X-smtpf-Report: sid=lA9FZe094454569100; tid=lA9FZe0944545691XL;
client=lan,relay,white,ipv6; mail=; rcpt=; nrcpt=1:0; fails=0
X-Canit-CHI2: 0.00
X-Bayes-Prob: 0.0001 (Score 0, tokens from: @@RPTN, f028)
X-Spam-Score: 0.00 () [Hold at 5.00] HTML_MESSAGE,SPF(pass,0)
X-CanItPRO-Stream: UEA:f028 (inherits from UEA:default,base:default)
X-Canit-Stats-ID: 35355645 - b33bcd1c960c (trained as not-spam)
X-Antispam-Training-Forget:
[1]https://canit.uea.ac.uk/b.php?i=35355645&m=b33bcd1c960c&c=f
X-Antispam-Training-Nonspam:
[2]https://canit.uea.ac.uk/b.php?i=35355645&m=b33bcd1c960c&c=n
X-Antispam-Training-Spam: [3]https://canit.uea.ac.uk/b.php?i=35355645&m=b33bcd1c960c&c=s
X-Scanned-By: CanIt (www . roaringpenguin . com) on 139.222.131.184
Interesting one for you....


From: Lyndsey Middleton [[4]mailto:lyndsey.middleton@ukcip.org.uk]
Sent: 10 November 2009 2:43 PM
To: C G Kilsby
Subject: Helpdesk query 1489: Hourly data have discontinuities at day joins


Hi Chris,


Another Weather Generator query for you. It was raised by Richard Watkins of Manchester
University (and COPSE project) following a visit from Roger yesterday.


Can you let me know your response please?


Cheers,
Lyndsey


Long Description=The hourly data from the Weather


Generator have discontinuities at each midnight join. The e.g. temperature jumps, may be as high as 9�C. The hourly data seem to have been generated independently for each day, rather than fitting a curve from the maximum of one day to the minimum of the next. The minimum to maximum curve, i.e. within each day, is fine.


Could the Weather Generator be altered to produce more realistic hourly data by fitting from Tmax to Tmin the following day, please? This would be helpful particularly for any use of the data for building simulation with plant controls.


Thanks,


Richard Watkins


Lyndsey Middleton
Enquiries Officer


UK Climate Impacts Programme School of Geography and Environment
OUCE
South Parks Road
Oxford OX1 3QY


[5]www.ukcip.org.uk




Tel: 01865 285 718 (direct) or 01865 285717 (switchboard)


My working days are: Tuesday and Wednesday 9am to 5pm and Friday 9 am to 12.30pm


Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
University of East Anglia
Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk
NR4 7TJ
UK
----------------------------------------------------------------------------


References


1. https://canit.uea.ac.uk/b.php?i=3535...3bcd1c960c&c=f
2. https://canit.uea.ac.uk/b.php?i=3535...3bcd1c960c&c=n
3. https://canit.uea.ac.uk/b.php?i=3535...3bcd1c960c&c=s
4. mailto:lyndsey.middleton@ukcip.org.uk
5. http://www.ukcip.org.uk/

There used to be a saying: Lies, white lies and statistics. While statistics are still useful for liars, computer models are more opaque and can be more easily controlled to deliver the message.

[Qqmike]

Do you think there might be enough cynicism around this place lately?

As for models, you got your philosophy (as linked to above by Woody), and you got your use of models. As for the latter, I feel it is all I've done in my adult life, starting with math and science, even psychology (behavioral versus ... versus ... etc.), operations research (a specialty), and even hobby-reading cosmology models (multiverses verse quantum gravity ... etc.). Models, ways to view the world, ways to simplify things and--hopefully--then be able to focus and target at what is truly important (to the task at hand, or to the objective function at hand).

[woodsmoke]

lol well I STILL like the gal in the diveskin!

and as always... GG posts the unambiguous information.

I followed all of that through three fora and CastleCops and still even the RETRACTION by the originator of AGW, for Margaret Thatcher so that she could have the "green card" for a re-election has never been shown here in the U.S.

but...again...she is a gorgeous gal! lol

woodgetstodivewithwomenlikeherbutamtoooldtobeinthe irorbitsmoke lol